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Update on COL Model Portfolio as of 23 October 2015

If you are doing cost averaging and you are at the same time following Colfinancial.com‘s Model Portfolio, here’s our regular update on the stock prices:

Note that the below COL Model Portfolio is based on the latest COLing the Shots report released last October 15, 2015 entitled Volatility to remain in the short term.

If you’re curious about the changes in the COL Model Portfolio, see tables below:
COL Market Outlook:

COL Model Portfolio last January 2015

April 2015 Model Portfolio

May 8, 2015 Model Portfolio:
May 29, 2015 Model Portfolio
June 30, 2015 Model Portfolio
October 15, 2015 Model Portfolio
col model portfolio 15 october 2015
As of Friday, October 23, 2015 here’s the status of the COL Model Portfolio.

The Return refers to potential return from Current Price to FV.

Current FV BBP Return Remarks
AC       774.00       845.00          15.48 9.17% Above BBP
MBT          83.25          99.00          46.26 18.92% Above BBP
SMPH          22.65          22.80    1,165.22 0.66% Below BBP
FGEN          26.70          34.10            8.61 27.72% Above BBP
ALI          35.30          43.00          32.43 21.81% Above BBP
MEG            4.73            5.83          41.39 23.26% Below BBP
BDO       107.50       118.00       135.65 9.77% Below BBP

 

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FGEN and CEB are tagged as BBP (buy below price).
The BBP’s are adjusted based on the latest COLing the Shots report.
In the latest model portfolio, URC is removed (please see reason below).
As you can see, the FVs and the BBPs did not change since the previous model portfolio.

Permission has been granted by broker Colfinancial.com via email to share the above model portfolio publicly.

Volatility to remain in the short term

COLing the Shots Report
15 October 2015
Summary:
  • The stock market has performed strongly the past week after China and the U.S. reported weak economic numbers, reducing the likelihood that the Fed would implement a rate hike this year. Despite this, we maintain our view that the stock market will remain volatile in the next few months. Consequently, we reiterate our recommended strategy – to be defensive, buying only on pullbacks, and on a staggered basis, focusing only on quality stocks.
  • Contagion from the weakness of our other ASEAN neighbors, namely Thailand and Indonesia, remains a threat, especially since the Thai and Indonesian economies are suffering from fundamental problems that will take time to resolve. In Thailand, consumers are overleveraged, while corporates have overcapacity problems. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the sharp depreciation of the rupiah brought about by the country’s weak current account position is leading to several problems including high inflation, weak consumer spending and inability of the central bank to cut interest rates. Government spending is likewise disappointing. Low commodity prices also do not bode well for Thailand and Indonesia which have a large exposure to commodity exports.
  • Although the outlook for the Philippine economy is better compared to Thailand and Indonesia, there are no compelling reasons for investors to buy Philippine stocks today. Recall that we have a negative outlook on the mining, gaming, telco and consumer sectors and only a neutral outlook on the power, property and banking sectors. Moreover, the guidance of most listed companies based on our latest series of company meetings remains negative to neutral. Finally, our corporate earnings forecasts continue to suffer from downgrades. We now forecast 2015 earnings growth for the PSEi to reach only 3%, while our 2016 earnings growth forecast is only 9%.
  • To avoid confusion, we would like to reiterate our positive long term view on the Philippine economy and the stock market. We also continue to believe that there’s a good chance that we have already seen the low at 6,600. Our analysis of the valuations of the Philippine market and other regional markets at their most recent lows point to the strong likelihood that the “bad news” is already priced in. However, given all the negative factors prevailing and the absence of catalysts, we expect the stock market to stay volatile and move sideways in the short term. As such, we don’t think now is a good time to be aggressive.
  • We adjusted the fair value estimates of our “COLing the Shots Stock Picks,” after we factored in the impact of heightened risk aversion and the roll over to 2016. We also removed CEB from our “COLing the Shots Stock Picks” list. During our most recent meeting with CEB’s management, we learned that the competitive environment is deteriorating again as lower oil prices encouraged PAL and AirAsia to become more aggressive. Although we recognize that CEB’s valuations are still attractive, we are concerned with the possibility that the company could miss earnings forecasts going forward given the growing risks facing the company. This in turn could lead to the stock’s underperformance relative to the PSEi.

New to stocks? Other articles you might want to check out: I’ve written a review of the PinoyInvestor stock market newsletter.
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Use voucher code PINOYINVESTORMLB upon payment.Market Summary:

PSEi rises to 7,200 on stimulus hopes
October 23, 2015
Philippine Daily Inquirer
Doris Dumlao-Abadilla

THE LOCAL stock barometer rallied to the 7,200 level on Friday, returning to positive territory for 2015, as European Central Bank (ECB) stimulus hopes perked up global markets.

The Philippine Stock Exchange index gained 118.6 points or 1.87 percent to close at 7,236.38, gaining for the fourth straight session. For the whole week, the PSEi advanced by a total of 180.64 points or 2.6 percent.

Stock market across the globe were lifted by the ECB’s statement that it was “open to the full menu of monetary policy” to stoke the euro zone.

In a research note on Friday, Citigroup said: “ECB’s dovish stance at (Thursday’s) policy meeting raises expectations of an easing action at the December meeting. Risk assets cheered this dovish ECB signal.”

At the local market, there were twice as many advancers (119) as there were decliners (56) while 40 stocks were unchanged. Value turnover for the day stood at P8.1 billion.

All counters firmed up led by the services and mining/oil counters which rose by over 2 percent.

ICTSI led the PSEi higher, rising by 5.31 percent. The international port operator’s Mexican unit Contecon Manzanillo S.A. de C.V. (CMSA) has signed a $260-million project finance facility with International Finance Corporation (IFC), Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), Standard Chartered Bank and KfW Ipex Bank. This is for the development and operation of a specialized container terminal at the Port of Manzanillo in Manzanillo, Mexico which will have a capacity of 2.2 million TEUs (20-foot equivalent unit) when completely built.

PLDT, BDO and EDC were all up by over 3 percent. URC, SM Prime, Megaworld and Semirara gained over 2 percent while SMIC, AC, BPI and JG Summit all rose by over 1 percent.

ALI, Meralco, Globe, RLC, MPI, Jollibee and GTCAP also contributed to the day’s gains.

With Friday’s gains, the PSEi has wiped out the 2015 losses earlier incurred following the China-epicentered stock market rout. It has now exceeded PSEi’s closing rate of 7,230.57 in 2014.

Other stock market related articles:

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